HSBC announced on October 24 that the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that the PMI rebounded from 59.9 in September to 51.1 in October, a new high in the past five months due to the stabilization of production costs. Up to 50 on the line of glory. Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, said that the initial value of PMI in October returned to the growth boom, indicating that the manufacturing industry started well in the fourth quarter. These data once again confirmed that the Chinese economy has no “hard landingâ€. Significant improvement in new orders index In the previous July, HSBC China PMI index fell below 50 for the first time, and hit a minimum of 49.3 since March 2009. Since then, the HSBC PMI has rebounded slightly in August and September but is still below 50, and this month's HSBC PMI has seen a strong rebound. From the sub-indicators, the PMI new orders and manufacturing output index showed a significant improvement in October. The new manufacturing orders index for the first time surpassed the 50-point boundary of the manufacturing industry for the first time since July, rebounding by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; China's manufacturing output index was 51.7, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than the 50.3 in September, the highest in six months. . Qu Hongbin said that benefiting from the growth of new orders and output, the initial value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to the growth boom in October, indicating that the manufacturing industry started well in the fourth quarter. The export order index exceeded the 50- year period in the first half of the year, and the export order index exceeded 50 in the first half of the year, rising to 52.4. Since the fourth quarter is the peak season for Christmas and New Year consumption in Europe and the United States, it will often drive a significant increase in orders. From the PMI export order index in October, this year is no exception. Qu Hongbin believes that in the fourth quarter, China's exports may still remain at a low level, but there will be no similar sharp decline in September, mainly because the US economy is slowly stabilizing and emerging market demand remains stable. The input price index fell sharply while the manufacturing boom in the manufacturing industry rebounded, while inflationary pressures eased. The data showed that the PMI input price index fell sharply to a low of 54.3, down 5.2 percentage points from the historical high of 59.5 last month; the output price remained stable at 54.7. This indicates that entering the fourth quarter, cost inflation will be further alleviated. Peng Sen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said recently that since August, the overall price increase in China has begun to fall. The inflection point of the price operation during the year has been confirmed. It is expected that the CPI increase in the next two months of this year can be controlled below 5.0%. "The rebound in the PMI in October should be able to resolve the impact of the recent slowdown in export growth, indicating that the Chinese economy has not entered a recession." Qu Hongbin said that overall, these data reconfirmed our view that China There is no "hard landing" in the economy. In fact, China’s officials and scholars have repeatedly said that the Chinese economy has no worries in the past when the West is smashing China’s slogan. Li Yang, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that many countries in the West are singing China, but in fact, the Chinese economy does not seem to have much problems. Although the economic growth rate will fluctuate, "but there will not be much fluctuations, which is certain."
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