Can subsidies solve overcapacity?

In 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference determined the “de-capacity, de-leverage” barrier, and many steel companies received subsidies from local governments.

On December 25, the listed company Linggang announced that it received a financial subsidy of 790 million yuan from Chaoyang City, Liaoning Province. In addition, listed companies that have recently received subsidies from local governments include Baotou Steel and Chongqing Iron and Steel, which are 580 million yuan and 150 million yuan respectively.

According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national crude steel output in 2014 was 820 million tons. The crude steel production capacity of the year was 1.16 billion tons, and the utilization rate of crude steel capacity was 70.69%, which means that about 30% of the production capacity was surplus.

The most immediate consequence of overcapacity is the serious losses in the steel industry. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten months of this year, the main business of large and medium-sized steel enterprises lost 72 billion yuan, with a loss of 47.52%. Last year, Linggang received a subsidy of 25.9 million yuan, but it was difficult to support huge losses, and the final net profit was 700 million yuan.

Recently, Liu Haiying, founder of Haiying (Shanghai) Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., pointed out at the Guangzhou Nandu Forum that before 2008, China's excess capacity was about 20%, which was at the global average. After 2009, this indicator has risen linearly and has now risen to over 30%.

Liu Haiying said that the government credit endorsement has enabled a large number of enterprises to obtain continuous financing support. When excess capacity cannot be eliminated, it will lower the return on investment of all industries, and the reduced return on investment will make more enterprises become zombies. enterprise.

Only after excess capacity has been cleared will the Chinese economy be able to resume its growth. But the process of going to capacity is very difficult, because the excess capacity is behind debt, and the debt is connected and connected. The collapse of a company may cause several companies to fall.

The central government is determined to "de-leverage." At present, the proportion of China's debt has risen simultaneously. Liu Haiying's data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that since 2008, China's non-government debt ratio has risen from around 110% to over 180%, higher than Japan, Europe, and the United States, and is the highest among the world's major economies.

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