Machine boom fell to 34.5%

In 2015, the overall operation of China's machine tool industry continued to show a significant downward trend. Under the influence of changes in economic conditions at home and abroad, sluggish traditional demand, intensified external competition, difficulties in internal operations, and changes in environmental uncertainty, the machine tool industry has experienced an inertial decline, and operating pressure has surged.

Overall performance - traditional engine deceleration, industry downturn According to a survey conducted by the China Machine Tool Industry Association's survey of 81 key contact companies in the industry, the industry's boom index fell to 34.5% in 2015, a decrease of 8.8 percentage points from the same period in 2014. The industry operation is in a sluggish state.

The number of the 81 companies involved in this industry boom survey were 52%, 20%, and 13%, respectively, in the metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, functional components and numerical control systems, tooling and foundry machinery sub-industries. 11% and 4%. Looking at the nature of different ownerships, the proportions of state-owned and collectively-controlled, privately-owned, foreign-funded, and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwanese holdings and other four types of enterprises accounted for 45%, 31%, 17%, and 7%, respectively. Therefore, the degree of prosperity reflected by the sample companies surveyed has considerable industry representativeness and can be seen as a microcosm of the current industry operation.

Segmentation - Operation evolved from differentiation to assimilation. Structural contradictions highlighted that from different industries and ownership enterprises, the 2015 boom index was well below the 50% balance line, and it was different from the same period in 2014. The degree of decline. Therefore, the industry boom index reflects that the industry's operation in 2015 has begun to evolve from the pre-2014 to the operational downturn assimilation.

From the perspective of changes in the boom index of different sub-industries, the stable operation of sub-industries for measuring tools and metal forming machines prior to 2014 has shown a significant decline this time, ranking first in the order of boom index from low to high (21.4). %) and third place (33.3%), while metal cutting machines that have continued to drop significantly ranked fourth (36%). This new change can be more clearly seen from the decline in the boom index. The descending order from big to small is metal forming machine tools (30.4 percentage points), work tools (29.3 percentage points), functional components and numerical control systems (15.8 pieces). Percentile), metal cutting machine tools (3%). The following two characteristics can be summarized by combining the above two aspects and the actual operation conditions:

The adverse impact of the structural contradiction between supply and demand on the machine tool industry is spreading from the local to the whole industry. Because different companies in different sub-industries, market structure, operating factors, and environmental factors are not the same, they affect the speed of proliferation, and thus show the early operation. Divide into the current process of convergence.

Judging from the actual operation of the metal forming machine tools, tooling tools, functional components, and numerical control systems in this sub-industry, the sharp decline in the market demand for low-end products is the major external cause of the downside, and related sub-industry products. The low internal weight in the structure and the lack of transformation and upgrading are the major internal causes of its downside.

Since the sub-sector of metal-cutting machine tools has been subjected to market shocks caused by structural contradictions between supply and demand since 2011, the current low-end production capacity has already shrunk considerably. Therefore, the 2015 boom index only showed a slight decline. However, due to the prominent structural contradiction between supply and demand, the metal cutting machine tool industry is still being restrained. In 2015, its booming degree showed a significant contraction.

All in all, since the Chinese economy entered the new normal, the structural contradiction between supply and demand has become a prominent problem that plagues the operation of the industry. However, due to the combined effects of the aforementioned factors, the contradictions are manifested in different industries and between companies. The impact is not the same. This has caused the differentiation of the performance of different companies and sub-sectors in the early stage. It has also increased the uncertainties in the judgment of the industry and policy level on the industry's operating trends, and even ignored the potential risks of systemic recession in the industry due to operational differentiation. Judging from the current situation of the boom index, the above issues need to be given attention and actively respond to the structural contradiction between supply and demand.

From the perspective of changes in the business climate index of different ownership systems, we can also see the signs of a downturn in the whole industry. In 2014, the business prosperity index of foreign-controlled (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and privately-held companies also showed significant expansion, with 67.2% and 56.9% respectively. In 2015, the booming index of foreign-controlled (including Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) and privately-held companies was significantly higher. The declines showed significant contractions, which were 23.9% and 34.5%, respectively, with decreases of 43.3 and 22.4 percentage points, respectively. The above changes in the performance of different types of ownership of the company's performance is very obvious. Since foreign-controlled (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and privately-held companies have always been the most flexible internal mechanisms, responding to the fastest changes in the market, and the industry groups that were least affected by the downturn in the previous period, this booming index has significantly contracted to confirm that the downturn is in the industry. Diffusion judgment.

Outstanding problems - Internal and external factors lead to weakening of the industry's impetus for development. "Keeping up with internal strength" is still the key. From the perspective of various operational elements and expected prosperity index, the impetus for industry development has been severely declining, which in turn has affected the industry's development confidence. Among the operating elements such as orders, operations, costs, and the environment, orders contracted the most, at 17.8%, which was a decrease of 21.6 percentage points from the same period in 2014; the business contraction ranked second in the list with 31.2%. Compared with the same period in 2014, it decreased by 2.6 percentage points.

Affected by the continued decline in prices of raw materials in the upper reaches and economic stimulus policies, the cost and environment are relatively stable. Among them, the cost was 47.7%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared with the same period in 2014, and it was the only factor that showed a rebound. The environment was 57.8%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points compared with the same period in 2014, and it was the only factor in expansion.

The orders and operating factors that reflected the operational power and quality in the operating elements showed a significant contraction, which was in line with the fact that the industry's development expectations also showed a significant contraction, which was 38.2%, which was 9.4 percentage points lower than the same period in 2014.

Judging from the outstanding problems reflected by enterprises, the seven more concentrated problems accounted for 87.9% of the total, which were 4 external issues (accounting for 51.7%): insufficient market demand (25.7%), foreign competition for similar products (10.7%), User default or payment capacity decline (8.2%) and chaotic market order, serious unfair competition (7.1%); 3 internal issues (accounting for 36.1%): tight capital chain (15%), high internal cost (12.5%) ) and lack of talent (8.6%). Although there are more external factors that restrict the development of the industry than internal factors, many external factors are also external factors that reflect external factors. For example, the lack of market demand and the competition of similar foreign products in two external factors are related to the decline in competitiveness caused by high costs and lack of talent within the industry; internal capital chain tensions indirectly exacerbate market chaos, serious unfair competition and other external factors. factor. The vicious cycle between these internal and external factors is the thorny issue facing the industry. Therefore, to solve this dilemma, we must start by solving internal problems.

From the perspective of corporate response measures, 10 more concentrated issues accounted for the entire 90.9%, respectively, 3 measures for external issues (24.2%): strengthening market segmentation (13.5%), increasing market and Sales commitments (5.5%) and strengthening of export business (5.2%); 7 measures (66.9%) on internal issues: cost control (18.5%), strengthening of corporate management (13%), strengthening of product quality control (10.4 %), increase R&D investment (8.1%), strengthen talent team construction (6.5%), reduce staff efficiency (5.2%), and digest inventory (5.2%). In the course of business operations, 66.9% of the measures for internal problems indicate that these issues are in the most urgent and most important position. If the industrial policy can focus and tilt more on these major problems and solutions, it will inevitably promote the separation of the machine tool industry from the difficulties of structural contradiction between supply and demand, and enhance the core competitiveness and development level of the industry.