Steel prices maintain short-term volatility pattern rebar prices rose sharply

Steel prices continued to rise this week, and it is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern. This week, the Myspic steel price index was 186.5, which was a 3.5% increase on a week-to-week basis. Among them, the long steel prices continued to lead the flat products in the first half of the cycle and the mainstream steel mills significantly increased the ex-factory price of construction steel. In the second half of the week, due to the fierce turmoil in the stock market and the futures market, steel prices have declined.

In terms of costs, the prices of iron concentrates rose slightly, coal prices remained basically stable, shipping charges fell significantly, and scrap prices increased significantly. The average price of iron ore in major mines in China is 1,087 yuan/ton, up by 46 yuan/ton or 4.44% from the previous week; the price of Qingdao and Beilun steel to Hong Kong iron ore fines has dropped by 10 yuan, and the prices were 1170 and 1150 yuan respectively. / Ton, BDI and BCI indices fell by 7.30% and 11.62% respectively; heavy scrap prices in Shanghai were 2,590 yuan/ton, up 316.76 yuan/ton or 13.93% from last week.

As we had previously expected, the factory price of wire snails rose sharply this week. The ex-factory price of steel products continued to rise at the beginning of this week, with the highest increase in rebar reaching 400 yuan/ton, and the price of sheet metal remained basically unchanged. Long price of long products is mainly due to energy saving and emission reduction. We believe that energy conservation and emission reduction will enter the final sprint stage of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. The steel mills will not be able to resume production in the short term, steel demand will enter the off-season, and the market will fluctuate significantly. The steel price will maintain a narrow range under the influence of the above factors. Concussion pattern.

The circulation of steel inventories by dealers across the country has been accelerating, the decline in longs stocks has increased, and sheet stocks have declined significantly. As of November 11, 2010, the total inventory of long products and plates in major cities nationwide was 13.66023 million tons, which was a decrease of 472,000 tons from the previous week; of which long steel stocks were 5.51792 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 262,000 tons, and the total stock of sheet materials was 8,083,130,000. t, a week-on-month decrease of 110,000 tons.

October macroeconomic data released, CPI innovation high. In October, the CPI continued to hit new highs during the year, triggering the market to shrink liquidity expectations, causing severe turbulence in the latter half of the city cycle and the stock market. The export of steel products continued to fall in October, and it is expected that the market outlook will remain low at the current export level.