At 7 o'clock on the morning of October 26th, all mills in Fengrun District were forcibly cut off and continued until November 1. In order to complete the electricity consumption quota plan for October, other steel mills with relatively low energy consumption still implement strict electricity restriction measures.
“The limited power level is far beyond September, and in the next few days, a large area of ​​production and production cuts in Tangshan will lead to a sharp decline in strip, wire, thread and other inventories, and its impact will be reflected in the next two months. "Lange Steel analysts said.
Affected by the policy environment and the economy, under the circumstances that steel products are not booming, compared with last year, the fall in iron ore imports this year is a foregone conclusion. It is worth noting that the drop in import volume did not result in a significant drop in iron ore prices, and the diversification of China's iron ore import channels could not change the monopoly status of the three major miners in a short period of time.
Tangshan steel companies once again limited the power to large areas. The author saw in the table entitled “Indications of electricity consumption limit for key power-consuming enterprises in Tangshan City in October 2010†in Tangshan City in Hebei Province. The planned amount is 394,678 kilowatts, and the electricity use limit in Fengrun area in October is 58995 kilowatts. According to reports, there are many small steel mills in the Fengrun area of ​​Tangshan, Hebei Province, and the energy consumption is serious, which has become the focus of current power restrictions.
Recently, Guojin Securities released a report saying that the attention of local government in Tangshan after the National Day and the intensity of the implementation of steel mills have indeed increased, indicating that the mandatory power cuts and power cuts policy is not yet over, and it still needs to be followed closely. According to Tangshan Iron and Steel Network statistics, on October 24, the shutdown rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 24.33%, an increase of 10.62 percentage points from September 14 and an increase of 13.86 percentage points from September 9.
For the reason of the power restriction, Wang Jinhua, an analyst of the company's steel industry, speculated that “it is not ruled out that the crude steel production in Hebei Province will be underestimated again in September 2010.†The September output of crude steel fell by 27.96% compared with the previous period, The previous high point has been reduced by 41.86%, which means that even if Tangshan production is reduced by 25%, it is still lower than the average level in the province. Referring to the historical experience of Hebei crude steel statistics in November and December 2009, Wang Zhaohua believes that this is also true. It means that the reduction in output may not be as large as the data show.
The relevant person in charge of Xinlong Steel's sales department said to the writer that since the government requested shutting down, the maintenance was advanced. Wang Zhaohua believes that, from historical experience, private steel mills will re-start work through various channels after power restrictions.
Since the "double-limit" policy has affected many provinces in China, the country's crude steel output has been declining. As Hebei Tangshan is the main producing area of ​​the steel industry, its limited production is particularly concerned. However, Wang Zhaohua believes that this has a limited impact on the nation's steel industry. The national steel companies are not "a game of chess." In September, other provinces and cities except Hebei Province still rose by 3% month-on-month, despite the limited electricity production cuts in other regions in September. As a result, the daily output of crude steel in the country fell only 4.05% month-on-month. According to the ten-year data released by China Iron and Steel Association, the daily crude steel output in the country in early October was 1.63 million tons, which was a decrease of 3.01% from the end of September, but it was more stringent than the enforcement rate. It was still 5.17% higher in mid-September.
According to the latest data released, in mid-October, the output of crude steel of key large and medium-sized enterprises was 13.41 million tons, the national estimate was 15.63 million tons, and the daily output was 1.341 million tons and 1.563 million tons respectively, which was a decrease of 33,000 tons and 6.3 tons respectively from the previous month. Ten thousand tons, a decrease of 2.4% and 3.9%.
For assault power cuts, the high level of the Hebei Metallurgical Association stated that power cuts are only an emergency measure and cannot cure the problem. He suggested that the government could control the energy consumption of steel from two aspects in the future. First, it would restrict the output of enterprises based on energy consumption per ton of steel and environmental protection per ton of steel. Second, the use of high-strength steel should be promoted throughout the society to reduce end-users. Unnecessary waste of steel.
Diversification of import channels is still strong
In stark contrast, iron ore prices remained unmoved after the national production restriction policy engulfed multiple provinces and led to a decline in national crude steel output.
The author understands that iron ore prices remain high despite the apparent decline in market demand. Statistics show that the domestic iron ore market still maintains a firm running trend despite the lack of volume support. Taking yesterday as an example, 63.5% of India's iron ore fines are quoted at US$157 to US$159 per ton, and this week’s outer disk The quotation has been maintained at a high of US$158/tonne to US$160/tonne. It is expected to prepare for the price increase of ore next year. â€
The supply of raw materials is subject to long-term constraints, forcing China to expand its channels of importing iron ore.
According to a customs statistics provided by Steel House, China imported 45759.72 million tons of iron ore from January to September this year, which was a year-on-year decrease of 2.46%, while the amount of iron ore imported from China's three major miners decreased in different degrees. .
Zhu Xi'an warned, “Even if imports have become diversified, Australia, Brazil and India still account for more than 80% of the import ratio. The monopoly position of the three major miners has not been broken.â€