By convention, summer is the peak of electricity consumption every year, and the first quarter is the off-season of energy demand. Why is the "electricity shortage" coming ahead of this year?
Electricity demand is “not weak in the off-seasonâ€, and structural structural contradictions lead to increased power shortages.
"The year-on-year increase in electricity consumption cannot be considered as an overheating performance. It should be noted that although industrial electricity consumption still accounts for a large proportion of electricity consumption in the whole society in the first quarter, this proportion has decreased and is also low. In the same period of recent years, Wang Siqiang, deputy director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration, said.
In the first quarter of this year, the load-limiting situation occurred in some areas. In addition to the demand side reasons such as the continuous increase in heating load and the recovery of industrial load, it was also affected by the supply side such as the price of coal and the ability to transport electricity across regions.
Compared with previous years, domestic coal prices continued to run at a high level in the first quarter of this year, and the volatility narrowed significantly. Wang Guangde, vice president of the China Coal Association, said that under normal circumstances, due to multiple factors such as weather, coal mine holidays, holiday maintenance and other factors, coal prices tend to fluctuate greatly in the first quarter of each year. This year, the price of thermal coal in the 5,500 kcal market in Qinhuangdao Port was basically 10 yuan/ton in the first quarter, and only 30 yuan/ton in Guangzhou Port with a large amplitude. As coal demand continues to be strong, domestic coal prices have continued the high trend around the Spring Festival. Hu Zhaoguang, deputy dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said that even if power demand rose, high coal prices did not allow the power plant to expand its enthusiasm. He introduced that in the first quarter of this year, there were already power plants because the coal price was too high, resulting in insufficient supply of coal, and then shut down.
The limited transmission capacity of power across the region is also one of the reasons leading to the arrival of this year's “electricity shortageâ€. Due to the reverse distribution of China's energy resources enrichment areas and major energy consumption areas, China's coal and power trans-regional transshipment pressure is very high. At present, China's coal and power transmission capacity is still far from the actual demand. Hu Zhaoguang believes that compared with coal transportation, power transmission across regions has the advantages of environmental protection and high efficiency, especially in dealing with the lack of electricity in some areas, and it can exert immediate results. He introduced that in this "electricity shortage", the Ningdong-Shandong ±660 kV DC transmission demonstration project, which was put into operation last November, played a significant role. In the past, Shandong Province, which lacked electricity, was not special this time. Prominent.
"The current lack of electricity in local areas is mainly due to systemic power shortages and structural power shortages. Accelerating the rationalization of coal-electricity price relations and increasing the intensity of cross-regional transportation construction is fundamentally avoiding the need for 'electricity shortages'. Road." Hu Zhaoguang believes.
The electricity load will grow faster, and it is necessary to alleviate the "electricity shortage" from both supply and demand.
At the National Economic Operation Work Conference held recently, Liu Tienan, director of the National Energy Administration, said that the supply of coal and oil in some regions in the first quarter of this year is still in a tight state, and the future trend is not optimistic. According to the National Energy Administration, the total electricity consumption in the first half of this year will reach 2.2 trillion kWh, an increase of about 11% year-on-year; during the peak summer period, the electricity load will increase rapidly, North China, East China, Central China and South China. There is still a tight possibility of grid power supply and demand.
Hu Zhaoguang believes that due to the limited construction of backup power plants, the shortage of power supply in China will intensify in the next year. He said that the current construction of China's backup power plants is not optimistic. It is expected that the installed capacity of new power generation next year will be 10 million kilowatts less than this year. According to the current economic development, China's social power consumption will continue to grow in the next year.
How to deal with the increasingly severe "electricity shortage" situation? Recently, the National Energy Administration has proposed to start from the two aspects of increasing effective supply and compressing unreasonable demand, and targetedly alleviating the prominent contradictions and problems in power supply and demand.
On the one hand, in accordance with the principle of increasing supply, optimizing demand, and ensuring key points, comprehensive coordination will be strengthened to ensure the supply of coal, electricity and oil in important areas, key time periods and key areas. Especially for the power peak summer work, the National Energy Administration requires the economic operation and regulation departments at all levels to make early judgments and early preparations, and to formulate careful response measures to possible supply gaps to ensure the use of electricity in residents' lives and key areas. Restrict the electricity consumption of residents.
On the other hand, in the case of limited growth in resource supply, the market is stabilized and prices stabilized by controlling unreasonable consumption. The National Energy Administration proposed to make full use of the market reversal mechanism, strengthen power demand side management, rationally control the total energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and promote structural adjustment.
Hu Zhaoguang said that in order to alleviate the "electricity shortage", both supply and demand must be attacked. To properly control the total amount of electricity consumption, in the final analysis, we must rely on transforming the mode of economic development, increasing the scientific and technological content of economic growth, reducing the energy consumption intensity per unit of GDP and the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions, and working hard on energy conservation and efficiency.
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