The central bank has just lowered the standard, and the finance minister has brought more heavy information!

On the same day, the central bank and the Ministry of Finance simultaneously released a favorable signal indicating that the regulatory authorities are more prepared to deal with the downward pressure that may exist in economic restructuring. Xiongyuan, a macro analyst at Guosheng Securities, said that there are still a number of policy combinations that are worth looking forward to. Including de-leverage, we will grasp the strength and rhythm, stabilize the word, and the time limit for resolving local debt should be extended to 5-10 years. The tax cut is already on the road. It is expected that the fastest in October, the third-grade VAT and the two-speed is a high probability, and it will not rule out the general tax drop. The rules for promoting consumption are expected to be released one or two months in the future.

Following the RRR cut by the central bank, the Ministry of Finance also released major benefits! From monetary policy to fiscal policy, the two major policy combinations have been recruited at the same time.

Liu Kun, the Minister of Finance, recently stated that he is studying a larger tax cut and more obvious measures to reduce costs. It is estimated that the scale of tax reduction and reduction for the whole year will exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, “it will let enterprises go light and let go of development”.

It is rare for the central bank and the Ministry of Finance to express their views on the same day, but there are also traces to follow. The Finance Committee and the Central Bank have repeatedly stated that they should maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the market. The Ministry of Finance also uses tax cuts as the key word for the whole year. The regulatory authorities are more prepared to deal with the downward pressure that may exist in economic restructuring. Xiongyuan, a macro analyst at Guosheng Securities, believes that the stability of the word, the de-leverage emphasizes the strength and rhythm, the tax cuts on the road, the liquidity is sufficient, and a series of policy combinations to protect the economic development.

More large-scale tax cuts are being studied

In the face of downward pressure on the economy, the central government has made it clear that a proactive fiscal policy should be more active.

How active? In response to economic hotspots yesterday, Liu Kun said that the effect of this year's proactive fiscal policy is not only on the reduction of tax reductions and fees, but also on speeding up bond issuance and speeding up budget implementation to ensure that local governments accelerate the use of funds and bring benefits as soon as possible. The positive fiscal policy is more positive. It is definitely not to engage in the strong stimulus of “big flooding”, but to improve the forward-looking, flexible and effective policies, play a greater role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustment, and promote the economy. High quality development.

In the next step, the active fiscal policy will continue to work in four areas:

Afterburner and burden reduction. We will fully implement the tax reduction and fee reduction policies that have been introduced, and at the same time, we will study more large-scale tax reductions and more obvious measures to reduce costs, so that enterprises can be lightly loaded and let go.

Fill in the short board. We will vigorously support the construction of major projects identified by the central government and strengthen the weak links in economic and social development.

Promote consumption. We will promote the improvement of the income distribution system that is conducive to improving the consumption power of residents, and in-depth study and demonstration of policies such as the special deduction scheme for personal income tax, increase the income of residents, and stimulate the consumption potential of residents.

Use the Yumin. The government has to go through "tight days" and use the money saved to protect people's livelihood expenditures. It is used by ordinary people to let the people live a good life.

Liu Kun said that under the active fiscal policy, this year's tax cuts and fee reductions have been further increased. In addition to the policy measures for the annual tax reduction and reduction of 1.1 trillion yuan determined at the beginning of the year, a series of measures to promote the development of the real economy and support technological innovation were introduced. It is estimated that the scale of tax reduction and reduction for the whole year will exceed 1.3 trillion yuan.

"We are still studying a larger scale of tax cuts and more obvious measures to reduce costs." He said that with the implementation of relevant policies, the growth rate of fiscal revenue in the next few months will be low. However, with the tax burden further reduced, it is expected that the annual income will be able to complete the annual budget and may be slightly overcharged.

Talking about the impact of Sino-US economic and trade frictions on China, Liu Kun said that China has the ability to overcome the US practices, harming the interests of Chinese enterprises and harming the interests of foreign companies in China. At the same time, it disrupts the world economic order and shakes. The confidence of countries in the future economic development. The International Monetary Fund has lowered the expected growth rate of the global economy by 0.7 percentage points.

"We have repeatedly stressed that China does not want to fight trade, but it is not afraid to fight trade." He said that China has taken targeted countermeasures. Some local enterprises and some enterprises have suffered certain impacts, but China has the ability to minimize the impact of shocks. For the affected enterprises, the financial department has formulated assistance measures, including coordinating and solving the problems of enterprises in export, supporting internal transfer and skill training of affected enterprises, and helping enterprises to tide over the difficulties.

The central bank and the Ministry of Finance are rarely on the same day.

It is worth noting that just nine hours before Liu Kun’s release of his views, the central bank announced that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions to replace the medium-term borrowing facilities. From October 15, 2018, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks will be lowered by 1 percentage point, and the medium-term loan facility (MLF) due on the day will not be Continue to do it again.

Some of the funds released by the RRR cut were used to repay the approximately RMB 450 billion medium-term loan facility (MLF) due on October 15. This part of the MLF will not be renewed on the same day. In addition to this part, the RRR reduction can also release incremental funds of about 750 billion yuan.

On April 17 this year, the central bank has already conducted a RRR cut to replace the MLF and released 400 billion incremental funds. The relevant person in charge of the central bank said that the replacement of MLF again does not mean that the monetary policy orientation has changed, and the stable and neutral monetary policy orientation remains unchanged. The RRR cut is still a directional regulation. Part of the funds released for the RRR reduction is used to repay the medium-term loan facilities. It is a substitute for two liquidity adjustment instruments, and the remaining funds are hedged against the tax period in the middle and late October. Therefore, While optimizing the liquidity structure, the total liquidity of the banking system has remained basically unchanged. The central bank will continue to implement a prudent and neutral monetary policy, not engage in flooding, reorientation and regulation, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide the rational growth of monetary credit and social financing scale, and create appropriate for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform. Monetary and financial environment.

The above-mentioned relevant person in charge said that the main purpose of this RRR reduction is to optimize the liquidity structure and enhance the economic ability of the financial services entity. Currently, with the increase in credit supply, the medium and long-term liquidity demand of financial institutions is also growing. At this time, appropriately reducing the statutory deposit reserve ratio and replacing some central bank borrowing funds can further increase the stability of the banking system funds, optimize the liquidity structure of commercial banks and financial markets, reduce the bank capital costs, and thus reduce corporate financing costs. At the same time, the release of about 750 billion yuan of incremental funds can increase the financial resources of financial institutions to support small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and innovative enterprises, promote the vitality and resilience of economic innovation, enhance the growth momentum of endogenous economy, and promote the healthy development of the real economy. .

Hong Wei, managing director of Bank of Communications International, said that the RRR cut should have long been expected. The choice of this time node operation is neutral to liquidity, expectations and sentiment.

Previously, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the Finance Committee, and the Central Bank repeatedly stated that “there should be a good supply of money to the general gate, and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.” The Finance Committee will refine its direction and face the entity under the condition that the total liquidity is reasonably sufficient. The problem of difficult economic financing and expensive financing must pay more attention to opening up the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and improving the ability and level of serving the real economy.

Not only has the RRR cut been expected, but the Ministry of Finance’s tax cuts have also been mentioned many times. Not only does it require a more proactive fiscal policy, but it also mentions the positive role of fiscal policy, the use of government bonds, tax cuts and other policy tools, and the use of guarantee mechanisms.

On the same day, the central bank and the Ministry of Finance simultaneously released a favorable signal indicating that the regulatory authorities are more prepared to deal with the downward pressure that may exist in economic restructuring.

Xiong Yuan believes that after the RRR cut, there are still a number of policy combinations that are worth looking forward to. Including de-leverage, we will grasp the strength and rhythm, stabilize the word, and the time limit for resolving local debt should be extended to 5-10 years. The tax cut is already on the road. It is expected that the fastest in October, the third-grade VAT and the two-speed is a high probability, and it will not rule out the general tax drop. The rules for promoting consumption are expected to be released one or two months in the future. The infrastructure supplement board has become the main force point, and it is recommended to focus on the regional differentiation characteristics of infrastructure. The structural and differentiated relaxation of real estate policies is still an option for the authorities and is expected to be in the first half of next year. The break-up of the private economy can be expected.

Tax cuts are keywords this year

Tax cuts and reductions are the key words in the economic operation this year.

From May 1, 2018, the State Council executive meeting reduced the VAT rate for manufacturing and other industries from 17% to 16%, and the value-added tax rate for transportation, construction, basic telecommunications services and other agricultural products from 11%. Dropped to 10%. It also decided to introduce seven tax reduction measures to support entrepreneurial innovation and the development of small and micro enterprises. It decided to reduce the import tariffs on daily consumer goods in a larger scope and better meet the diversified consumer demand of the masses. It is necessary to make sure that the basic tax reduction fee standard will be raised from 3,500 yuan to 5,000 yuan and the new tax rate table will be applied as scheduled from October 1st, and the children's education and continuing education will be clarified in accordance with the requirements for the masses to get more benefits. The specific scope and standards of 6 special additional deductions for major illness medical care, ordinary housing loan interest, housing rent, and maintenance of the elderly. It is ensured that the starting point of taxable income after deduction is obviously higher than 5,000 yuan, and the special additional deduction range and standard will be dynamically adjusted.

Regarding the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, the State Council Supervision Team and the National Audit Office should strengthen supervision and promotion. All departments must proceed from the overall situation of the country and take the initiative to further reduce the burden on the market entities so that enterprises and the masses can actually feel.

Liu Kun pointed out that the effect of the tax reduction policy will take some time. For example, the value-added tax rate of some industries will be lowered from May 1, the average growth rate of domestic VAT in the first five months is 19.5%, which has gradually declined since June and has dropped to 2.1% in August. “As time goes by, companies will gain an increased sense of tax cuts and fees.”

"Financial income is taken from the people and used by the people. Every minute should be spent on the cutting edge. It must be done to be effective, and it must be accountable." Liu Kun said that the Ministry of Finance will be related to The department earnestly implements the requirements of the central government and strives to achieve “five totals”, that is, full coverage, all-round, whole process, full cycle, and full supervision, so that performance management covers all financial funds.

Liu Kun pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the central government has actively adjusted and optimized the expenditure structure, strictly controlled general expenditures, strengthened the management of “three public funds”, and increased investment in key areas and key links.

In terms of promoting balanced regional development, the central government paid 3.9 trillion yuan of local general transfer this year, an increase of 10.9%, the highest growth rate in recent years. In the allocation of funds, the focus is on the financially difficult areas such as the central and western regions, enhancing the financial support capacity of these places and promoting the equalization of basic public services.

In support of the three major battles, this year, the central government's special poverty alleviation funds were greatly increased, and 1061 billion yuan was allocated, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The increase was mainly focused on deep poverty areas such as the “three districts and three states”; the atmosphere, water, and The soil pollution prevention and control fund is 40.5 billion yuan, and the investment is the largest in recent years.

In terms of strengthening the basic welfare of the people's livelihood, this year the central government arranged employment subsidy funds of 46.9 billion yuan, arranged basic pension transfer payments of 669.7 billion yuan, and arranged rescue aid funds of 13396 billion yuan to improve security and improve people's livelihood.

In terms of increasing investment in key areas, Liu Kun said that up to now, the central government has issued a total of 409.4 billion yuan of local infrastructure expenditure, accounting for 94.2% of the budget at the beginning of the year, focusing on supporting infrastructure construction in the fields of innovation-driven, ecological and environmental protection, and promoting the economy. Continue to develop healthily.

How does the stock market affect?

After all, under the interest rate hike by the US dollar, countries must raise interest rates in order to keep their currencies stable, but our central bank has not followed. The Southwest Securities macro team believes that the central bank's RRR cuts reflect the independence of monetary policy, and the loose monetary policy will continue under the downward pressure of the economy. The central bank continued to lower the RRR in the context of rising external interest rates and the appreciation of the US dollar, indicating that the central bank adhered to the independence of monetary policy and focused on the stability of the domestic economy and financial markets. However, as the channel of easing to the real economy has not been fully opened, the economic downturn will not change in the short term, so the loose monetary environment of the central bank continues and liquidity continues to remain abundant. Short-term interest rates continue to remain low, which means that the long-term interest rate rises in a limited space, and the bond market's high probability continues to fluctuate, without the need to panic about rising foreign interest rates.

Xiongyuan believes that the RRR cut will help alleviate the short-term downside pressure, and will objectively boost market confidence in the expectation. From past experience, it has boosted banking, financial and real estate stocks.

Compared with the objective of the short-term liquidity of the market, the tax reduction and fee reduction is a solid positive.

Zhang Xiaochun, an analyst at Guolian Securities, pointed out that the tax-reducing favorable signal is conducive to stabilizing and improving market expectations, hedging the risks brought by the economy, and reducing the impact on the profit side of enterprises including listed companies. In the long run, it is expected to boost the performance of A-shares.

The Ministry of Finance will further improve the tax reduction and tax credit system. At the enterprise level, it is necessary to reduce the burden of tax reduction and fee reduction for enterprises to stimulate the market vitality. It is necessary not only to resolutely implement the tax reduction and fee reduction measures that have been introduced, but also resolutely stop the enterprises. To increase the new burden, we must also study policies that significantly reduce the burden of corporate taxes and fees. In response to the new personal income tax law, six special additional deductions for children's education, continuing education, major illness care, ordinary housing loan interest, housing rent, and maintenance of the elderly have been introduced.

Wei Tao, a macro analyst at the Pacific Ocean, expects a higher probability of implementing a larger tax cut next year. First of all, we must grasp the principle of "the same amount of money, structural adjustment." Secondly, it is necessary to cooperate with the general direction of policy adjustment to expand domestic demand or reduce costs. The value-added tax is considered in the direction of the tax depreciation superimposed “degenerate tax file”, and it is a more reasonable choice to continue to narrow the grade. Therefore, the 16% of the first gear and the 10% of the first tax rate will continue to be lowered by 1 percentage point. According to estimates, the corresponding tax reduction scale is about 330 billion. From the perspective of international tax competition, corporate income tax may also be lowered by 1-3 percentage points. The calculation of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size will reduce the burden on enterprises by about 12-36 billion. The actual tax reduction should be larger.

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