It is less likely to raise again. It is understood that Chinalco’s price adjustment is the third time since October last year that the domestic spot alumina price has been raised. In October 2005, Chinalco raised the price of alumina from 4,330 yuan / ton to 4,660 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.6%; in December 2005, Chinalco again adjusted the price, from 4,660 yuan / ton to 5,200 yuan / ton The range is 11.6%.
Why did Chinalco repeatedly adjust prices in a short period of time? According to researchers, "the most important factor is that domestic spot alumina prices and import price gaps are still expanding." He said that if domestic and import price gaps exceed 1,000 yuan, Chinalco will face pressure to adjust prices. The price adjustment in October last year was because the price of imported alumina had reached more than 5,400 yuan / ton, and the price difference exceeded 1,000 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic port delivery price has reached 6,300 yuan / ton, and the price difference before the price adjustment reached At 1,100 yuan / ton, price adjustment has become an imperative behavior.
On the other hand, China's current supply and demand gap for alumina still exists. According to a forecast from the Ping An Securities Research Institute earlier this year, the supply and demand gap for alumina in China will be around 6.85 million tons in 2006.
Analysts believe that although the alumina production line is more than this year, the production capacity is expected to increase, but the growth of production capacity is difficult to compensate for the increase in demand. The gap still exists, and the conservative estimate is over 6 million tons. This gap is from the market in the first quarter of this year. The data is evident. In the first three months of this year, China imported a total of 1.74 million tons of alumina, a year-on-year increase of 45%, accounting for about half of the consumption in the same period.
The source also believes that in the second half of this year, the capacity expansion of alumina will accelerate, and the growth rate of supply will also accelerate. Therefore, it is unlikely that Chinalco will continue to increase alumina in the second half of the year. However, as the gap still exists, the possibility of price correction in the short term is still small. By 2007 and 2008, with the further expansion of alumina capacity, the price of alumina is expected to decline.
Shandong Aluminum has benefited a lot. At present, Shandong Aluminum is the only listed company in China that produces alumina. In recent years, under the stimulation of the frequent increase in alumina prices, Shandong Aluminum's alumina production has also seen rapid growth. The price and price have risen, which has benefited the company.
The data shows that Shandong Aluminum produced a total of 1,180,100 tons of alumina in 2005, an increase of 13.61% over the same period of last year, including 390,800 tons of chemical alumina, an increase of 26.54% over the same period of last year, and the production of all electrolytic aluminum was 10,400 tons, an increase of 51.03%; Sales revenue was 4.78 billion yuan, up 23.17% year-on-year; pre-tax profit was 1.225 billion yuan, up 6.69% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of this year, Shandong Aluminum's performance was even more gratifying. A total of 299,600 tons of alumina was produced, a year-on-year increase of 6.78%. The total production of electrolytic aluminum was 26,700 tons, an increase of 22.62% year-on-year; the sales revenue was 1.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.59%. The profit before tax was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.09%.
Some analysts believe that the alumina will once again increase the price, Shandong Aluminium, the largest alumina listed company in China, will benefit again, but the price increase may affect Chinalco's expected repurchase plan for Shandong Aluminum. The cost of the purchase.
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