The contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic methanol market

In recent years, China's Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other coal-producing provinces have undergone industrial upgrading and have successively launched methanol plants, making the methanol production capacity grow rapidly. However, the growth in demand in the domestic market is far from the rapid growth of production capacity, coupled with the large influx of imported methanol, further aggravating the supply and demand contradictions in the domestic methanol market, making the market sales prices continue to slump, vicious competition continues, the company operating rate low. It is expected that in 2013, China's methanol production capacity will continue to increase substantially, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will become more prominent.

Rapid growth in production capacity Since 2005, the production capacity of methanol in China has maintained a rapid growth trend. From 2005 to 2012, the national average annual growth rate of methanol production capacity reached 54%, and the average annual new production capacity was more than 6 million tons. The output was also growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 56%. In 2010, a total of 21 companies added methanol production capacity, including 6 new production capacity of over 300,000 tons, the national methanol production capacity reached 42 million tons, and production capacity increased by 10 million tons. In 2011, the production capacity reached 49 million tons and the production capacity increased by 7 million tons.

According to statistics, in 2012, the national methanol production capacity broke the 50 million tons mark, reaching a record 53 million tons, and the newly increased production capacity reached 4 million tons, of which more than 70% of the new production capacity was coal raw material devices, and the rest were coke ovens. Gas device. In 2012, the country's methanol production reached more than 26 million tons, an increase of nearly 19% year-on-year, and the utilization rate was 49%. It is estimated that in 2013, the production capacity of methanol in China will increase by about 6 million tons, the total production capacity will reach 59 million tons, the output will reach 30 million tons, and the total operating rate will be about 52%.

From a geographical point of view, China's new methanol production capacity is mostly concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other coal-producing provinces. Shanxi's newly added capacity is mostly a small coke oven temperamental methanol plant with a maximum capacity of 300,000 tons. Most of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi are large coal-based installations. These large-scale installations have 600,000 to 800,000 tons, and their production costs are relatively low.

In recent years, with the sustained development of China's economy, the demand for methanol in the domestic market has been steadily rising, but the growth in demand is far behind the rapid growth in production capacity. From 2005 to 2011, the demand for methanol in China's market increased from 7 million tons to 31 million tons, which increased by 24 million tons in 7 years, an average annual increase of 3.4 million tons, and an average annual growth rate of about 21%. Between 2005 and 2012, China’s methanol production capacity increased from 11 million tons to 53 million tons, increased by 42 million tons in 7 years, and increased by 6 million tons annually, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 56%. In the growth of demand.

Imported goods hit the market In addition, in the case of serious imbalance in the supply and demand of methanol in the domestic market, in recent years, a large number of foreign low-cost methanol has made great inroads into the Chinese market, which has further aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market. In 2009, the import of methanol in China was approximately 5.2 million tons, while the total demand for methanol in the domestic market was 16 million tons during the same period, and imported goods accounted for nearly one-third of the domestic market share. Most imported methanol comes from the Middle East region. The natural gas prices in this region are low, and the methanol plant is large. The production cost is only half of that of domestic companies. Some use oilfield associated gas as raw materials, and the cost is lower, which has absolute competitive advantage. Moreover, the seaborne fare from the Middle East to China is about 300 yuan per ton, and most of the coal-to-methanol plants in China are concentrated in the northwest region. The rail freight to East China reaches only about 600 yuan per ton, and the freight rate for highways is even higher. Domestic methanol competes with foreign products in terms of production costs and logistics. The ports of East China and South China have been flooded with low-cost methanol internationally for a long time. The port prices have been long-term inversion with the mainland price, which has exerted tremendous pressure on the methanol in the Mainland.

In the case of a large number of low-cost imports of methanol that pose serious damage to the domestic methanol industry, in 2009, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against imported methanol originating in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and New Zealand. Although the import volume of methanol was reduced after the filing of the case, it did not fundamentally change the market situation. In 2012, China's methanol imports amounted to 5 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous year, and the import amount was 1.887 billion US dollars. It is expected that China's methanol imports will reach 5.2 million tons in 2013.

With the large number of methanol plants in the country being continuously completed and put into operation, and the import of low-priced methanol under double pressure, the operating rate of methanol enterprises in China has been very low, and the operating rate for the whole year of 2007 was about 55%. The operating rate fell to 39% in 2009. After that, the operating rate has risen. In 2011, it reached 45%. In 2012, the operating rate was less than 50%.

In recent years, the domestic methanol market price has been in a downturn. In May 2008, the price of methanol in China's market was 4,800 yuan per ton, which has since been declining. By 2009, the price has dropped to 1,700 yuan per ton***. Later, as the oil prices in the international market continued to rise, chemical raw materials, labor costs, etc., also rose gradually, and methanol prices rose. In 2010, the average price of methanol in the Chinese market was between 2,300 and 2,500 yuan per ton. In recent years, although many chemical raw materials have risen as the overall price of the market has risen, the price of methanol has remained low. In April 2013, the price of methanol in the Chinese market was 2400-2500 yuan per ton, and the price of methanol in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places was between 2000 and 2100 yuan per ton.