Cold air kills the country

According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, due to the influence of the diffusion of strong cold air, the temperature in most parts of the country will generally drop by 4-8 °C in the next three days. The temperature plummeted too cold. Only Chengdu used electricity for nearly 100 million degrees the day before. The Shaanxi government subsidized heating companies for tens of millions of yuan yesterday. The supply of coal in the country is tight.

Phenomenon: multi-provincial heat protection warfare started
With the further decline in temperature, it is expected that Chengdu's daily electricity consumption will continue to grow, breaking through the 100 million kWh mark. The Chengdu Electric Power Bureau said in an interview yesterday that in the event of extreme cold weather, there may be “electricity tightness” in the main city of Chengdu. The Shaanxi Provincial Government admitted on its official website yesterday that the current heat supply situation in Shaanxi Province is more severe. Shaanxi Province used the provincial coal price adjustment fund of 50.43 million yuan to subsidize the provincial heat and power cogeneration heating enterprises. It is understood that the subsidy is only one tenth of the loss last year.

Root cause: contract coal accounted for a small proportion, enterprises converted to market coal
Coal prices have been rising steadily, and electricity prices have not been linked. As of the end of October, among the more than 400 thermal power plants owned by the five major power generation groups, there were more than 200 loss-making power plants with a loss of 50%.

Against the background of rising commodity prices, the National Development and Reform Commission required that 769 million tons of coal should be “required” to prohibit price increases. However, analysts pointed out that the country will not allow the price increase of key contracts for coal, which will definitely cause key coal enterprises to significantly reduce the number of key coal contract contracts and switch to market coal. Many coal industry experts predict that in 2011, coal companies will turn more to coal spot transactions and reduce key coal-fired contracts. This will undoubtedly make the electricity supply to the house leaking.

Investment Advice
The secondary market still chooses coal stocks to avoid power stocks
The agency's investment proposal for the future is to still choose coal to avoid electricity.

Song Zhichen, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, told reporters yesterday that the government has restricted the price increase of “key contract coal”, which has limited impact on the overall coal industry, but only slightly affected some enterprises with a high proportion of key contract coal. Under the conservative assumption that coal prices will rise by 6% next year, the industry's profit growth rate will be 20% next year. It is recommended to select high-growth and low-value stocks with expected injections for allocation. As for power companies, the prospects for profit are not optimistic in the absence of rising electricity prices and the rise in coal prices.

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