The macro-control policy should be stable and not to swing back and forth

Abstract After a difficult climb, the Chinese economy is now showing its dawn of stabilization. On the 3rd, Premier Li Keqiang said in the keynote speech of the 10th China-ASEAN Expo that China’s economy has remained stable in the first half of the year, but we dare not let it go, and even dare not take it lightly. Although moving forward...
After a difficult climb, the Chinese economy is now showing the dawn of stabilization. On the 3rd, Premier Li Keqiang said in the keynote speech of the 10th China-ASEAN Expo that China’s economy has remained stable in the first half of the year, but we dare not let it go, and even dare not take it lightly. Although there are still many difficulties and challenges in the process of advancement, we have the conditions and ability to complete the main tasks of China's economic and social development this year, and we are determined to lay a good foundation for next year, for the future, and for long-term sustainable and healthy development.

Clearly delineating a reasonable interval

After China's economic growth slows down, it is now entering a stable and reasonable operating range. Li Keqiang said that the main purpose of macroeconomic regulation and control is to avoid economic ups and downs and keep the economic operation in a reasonable range. The "lower limit" is to stabilize growth and protect employment, and the "upper limit" is to prevent inflation.

According to the government's work report at the beginning of the year, the target of China's economic growth in 2013 (GDP growth rate) is about 7.5%, and the consumer price increase (CPI) is controlled at around 3.5%. The data shows that the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 7.6% year-on-year. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year (successfully controlled within 3.5%). The employment situation in the first half of the year remained generally stable, with 7.25 million new jobs in urban areas, an increase of 310,000. The number of migrant workers out of employment reached 171 million, an increase of more than 4 million.

Li Keqiang concluded that in general, the economic operation is still within a reasonable range this year. Under the circumstances that the world economic recovery is difficult and the long-term accumulation of contradictions in the country is prominent, we have maintained a basically stable economic operation situation, and also gave the market and society a Stable expectations.

In the past two months, data on CPI, PMI, import and export, and added value of industrial enterprises above designated size have further shown that the economy is bottoming out and stabilizing. A “Question of the '2013 China Macroeconomic Situation and Policy' Questionnaire Survey” shows that 72% of experts believe that China's economic operation is generally stable and the growth rate is in a reasonable range. Some experts believe that inflation expectations will weaken in 2013, price levels will remain stable, and consumer spending expectations will be strengthened. Overall, most experts are optimistic about the trend of China's macroeconomic operations in 2013.

Policy should be stable, do not swing back and forth

Faced with the current steady state of economic operation, experts pointed out that macro-control policies must grasp the middle road and cannot easily swing. In response to different economic trends, it is necessary to form a rational macro-control policy framework, and combine policies to adjust structure, promote reform and stabilize growth, maintain employment or control inflation, and prevent risks.

Li Keqiang stressed that to grasp the reasonable interval and policy framework, we must enhance the scientific, predictive and pertinent nature of macroeconomic regulation and control.

According to Haitong Securities' analysis, the Prime Minister's "reasonable interval theory" means that the current government has a small probability of issuing a total stimulus package, but the new government will plan ahead and study in advance if there is an economic failure.

"In terms of actual operation, "interval", "upper limit" and "lower limit" emphasize a policy orientation of "stable and promising". Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that if the bottom line is broken, China The government will not sit idly by; if it does not break through the bottom line, it must grasp the structure and promote reform. Behind this kind of judgment is an economic logic that is both positive and positive.

Some experts pointed out that macroeconomic policies should be stable, but microeconomic policies should be alive. “The micro policy should be released and answer the question of how to prevent the decline of economic growth.” Wang Hongyu, deputy director of the Macro Theory Department of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the essence is to adjust the power of the government and the market in resource allocation. The field of management needs to be strengthened, and the areas that should not be managed need to be left to the market.

Relying on transformation and upgrading to increase development stamina

The current stable operation of the economy has created a favorable opportunity for accelerating economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading. "From the trend of the PMI index in the last two months, there have been positive changes in various links in the economic activity chain." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that it is also necessary to prevent the price of upstream products from rebounding strongly during the period of economic stabilization and recovery. Cost pressure. At the same time, it is necessary to fully grasp the favorable opportunity for the current economic growth and stability, and accelerate the process of economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading.

Experts believe that since the current economic operation interval has not crossed the "lower limit", in order to stabilize the economy in the long run, the focus of the current macroeconomic policy is to adjust the structure, promote reform, and promote economic transformation and upgrading.

"China's economic transformation has reached an important juncture. If it is not reformed or adjusted, it will sacrifice the medium- and long-term growth potential and international competitiveness of the Chinese economy," said Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Li Keqiang said that China's economy has entered a new stage of development and must pay more attention to relying on transformation and upgrading. He pointed out that when the economic operation is kept within a reasonable range, it is necessary to change the economic development mode as the main line, adjust the structure as the focus, release the reform dividend, give better play to the role of market allocation of resources and self-regulation, and enhance the vitality and stamina of economic development. .

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