Coke price stability is still falling in the period

Fundamental China's initial July PMI broke the 50 to 28-month low; the second round of Greek bailout plan reached the same level and will fully compensate for its **gap; the euro zone’s economic growth slowed sharply on July 21, most areas Coke prices remain weak and stable.
As of July 20th, Tianjin Port (8.10, -0.02, -0.25%) had 1,917,500 tons of coke inventories, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous day, an increase of 591,500 tons from the beginning of May.
On the 21st, the market price of coking coal in various regions was stable and the transaction volume was relatively good.
On the 21st, the price of the steel market rose. My steel network surveyed steel prices in 20 major cities across the country: 1.0mm cold rolling average price was 5442 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; HRB335 20MM rebar average price was 4984, up 5 yuan/ton; 6.5 high-line average Price 4985, up 10 yuan / ton. Shagang raised the ex-factory price of rebar in late July, and Hebei Iron & Steel (4.47, -0.01, -0.22%) saw stable plate prices in August.

Comments on July 21 coke September contract opened lower, closing 2286, compared with the previous settlement price fell 18 yuan / ton, the transaction slightly lower positions slightly increased.
A summary analysis of coke crude steel production data in June: Crude steel production in June increased by 11.9 from the same period of last year, which was slightly lower than the previous month. The impact on the steel market was not significant; coke production increased by 14.9% year-on-year and by 4% month-on-month. The output of crude steel fell slightly while the output of coke continued to expand rapidly, and the oversupply of coke was still intensifying, resulting in negative coke. It is expected that the sharp rise in coke price before September delivery may be weak, with a volatility range of (-50-+50). Considering that the current positive basis is still above 150 yuan, a small amount of short selling will be less risky. In addition, the current price difference is too large and the spot price is stable, and the current arbitrage and guaranteed selling opportunities exist, which strongly inhibits the price increase.
In the first half of July, China Iron and Steel Association reported a daily output of 1.955 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the previous period. If the output falls, it will continue to make bad coke.
Hegang issued the coke purchase price unchanged in July. Since the purchase price of coke from Hegang is the wind vane of the coke market in North China, it is expected that this will affect the short-term stability of the domestic coke market and there will be no major price fluctuations.
Recommendation: Affected by the bearish PMI data, yesterday's decline, but as repeatedly mentioned before: "The current price is stable, the period price still has room to fall before the delivery month," so it is not appropriate to regard this decline as a long-term opportunity, because the period of price decline is still relatively low. Big. If you stand below 2300, you can look at the 2270, 2250 position; our company's previous recommendation to buy thread throw coke arbitrage profit continues to expand.

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