Abstract world's largest aluminum producer, - Vladislav Suolu Weiye Fu Rusal first executive vice president recently said that with the gradual recovery of the global economy and significantly reduce aluminum production, the global aluminum market supply and demand balance is becoming ...
Vladislav Soluviev, the first executive vice president of Russia's largest aluminum producer, said recently that as the global economy recovers and aluminum production shrinks sharply, global aluminum supply and demand are gradually balanced. However, in the next few years, global aluminum production will continue to reduce production. According to RUSAL, global aluminum prices have reached their lowest point. If only the supply and demand factors are considered, the global aluminum price is expected to be around US$2,000 per ton in 2014, and will rise to US$2,250 and US$2,400 per ton in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Soluviev said that global primary aluminum consumption is expected to increase by 6% to 51.2 million tons in 2013. This forecast is based primarily on the good momentum of key markets. Among them, China's consumption ranked first in key markets with a growth rate of 10%. India, Asia (excluding China and India) and North America followed closely with growth rates of 6%, 5% and 4%, respectively, even in Europe. The growth rate will also reach 1.5%. From 2013 to 2015, global aluminum consumption (excluding China) will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4%, equivalent to an increase of 2 million tons per year. Since the fourth quarter of 2013, the global aluminum market (excluding China) has even seen a trend of supply shortage. For the whole of 2013, global aluminum market (excluding China) supply is expected to be 429,000 tons less than demand, 1.3 million tons in 2014 and 2015, and further increase to 1.9 million tons and 2.4 million in 2016 and 2017. Ton.
The outbreak of the international financial crisis has brought severe challenges to the global aluminum industry, which has brought about major changes in the aluminum market. In 2013, in response to the global overcapacity and the volatility of aluminum prices, RUSAL suspended the European smelter with the lowest production efficiency, reducing aluminum production by 324,700 tons, equivalent to 8% of capacity in 2012. Soluviev said that if aluminum producers want to fully recover from the impact of the international financial crisis, they must limit market supply. Although the global aluminum market (excluding China) has seen a trend of less than demand, aluminum production still needs to continue to cut. In 2013, Rusal will further reduce its output by 647,500 tons. In 2012 and 2013, global aluminum production capacity (excluding China) decreased by 1.4 million tons and 1.2 million tons, respectively, due to the continuous closure of many smelters around the world. He expects this trend to continue in 2014, and global aluminum production capacity (excluding China) will be reduced by another 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons.
Soluviev said that 10 years ago, China's aluminum consumption was only 3 million tons. But with the construction of infrastructure, the development of the automotive industry and the increase in demand for rural household appliances, China's aluminum consumption demand has soared. At present, China is the world's largest consumer of aluminum. In 2013, it consumed 25 million tons, accounting for 46% of global consumption. But at the same time, China's aluminum production is also growing. China is now the main driving force for increasing global aluminum production, with aluminum production accounting for 40% of the world's total. China's aluminum overcapacity caused corporate losses and aluminum prices to fall. Soluviev also believes that only the supply of science will help the aluminum market rebound.
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