The central bank's RRR cuts are on schedule, the real economy is weak, the financing costs remain high, and capital outflows lead to the expansion of the currency gap. The “window period†created by the near-end liquidity tension and the stock market fever is the triggering factor. As the cost of bank capital rises sharply, the RRR cut can release the low interest deposit funds locked in the central bank, increase the scale of the bank's low-cost loanable funds, and expand the social liquidity supply through the currency multiplier. Generally speaking, the RRR cut will significantly increase the bank loan spread income. Through the wealth effect, the bank's enthusiasm for lending can be boosted, and the scale and cost of the loan will decline.
To a certain extent, the central bank’s RRR cuts are also aimed at reducing the cost of individual home purchase loans, stimulating demand for home purchases, entering the market, digesting stocks for sale and motivating developers to increase new construction and land acquisitions, ultimately helping the economy as a “hands-on†in 2015. The infrastructure investment has grown steadily. In 2014, real estate development investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of fixed assets investment by 5.2 percentage points, and the growth rate reached a new low since the beginning of this century. Developers are not optimistic about the prospects of the property market. The new construction growth rate in 2014 was the lowest since 1997. In the fourth quarter, despite the active demand side, the new construction, investment and land markets are still “coldâ€, and the property market is still weak. Deterioration is considered to be an important factor dragging down infrastructure investment and economic growth.
In the fourth quarter of 2014, due to the “9·30†mortgage new deal, the “11.21†interest rate cut, the national and local provident fund new policies and other favorable financial policies to reduce the cost of buying houses, the property market “warm winter†market is obvious, and the transaction volume of major cities There has been a 15% to 20% quarter-on-quarter increase, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has fallen from less than 20% in the first three quarters to less than 10%. According to the monitoring of the transaction data of the property market in 2014 by the World Bank, the proportion of just-needed products with an area of ​​less than 90 square meters in all major cities is 46%, and the proportion of products below 140 square meters is 90%, which means that the demand is still The main force of this round of entering the market.
The “warm winter†market in the property market stems from the reduction in the cost of buying houses, and stimulates the demand for rigid home purchases accumulated in the first three quarters to enter the market. However, in January 2015, demand clearly could not keep up with the rhythm of the last three months of 2014. In January of this year, the volume of major cities fell by more than 20% from December last year, while that of key cities fell by more than 30%. Despite the weakening of housing price reduction promotion, the tight liquidity of banks at the end of the year, the demand for stock market diversion housing investment, and even the seasonality, it is more likely to be quickly released or even overdrawn due to the short-term multi-party policy. The subsequent phase of the “vacuum†demand also means that the potential demand in the property market may not be strong.
In terms of stocks for sale, according to the monitoring of the Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, the inventory digestive cycle of 35 key cities is still more than 14 months, which is not much different from the 16 months at the end of the third quarter of last year. The nationwide sale of commercial housing is 620 million square meters, an increase of 21% year-on-year, 2.2 times more than in 2011, equivalent to the sales area in 2008. Inventories are not ideally digested, and developers are unwilling to speed up new construction and land acquisition. In the last two months of 2014, the cumulative year-on-year decline in new real estate starts increased by 3.5 and 1.7 percentage points respectively, while the cumulative year-on-year decline in development investment expanded by 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points in the last two months of 2014, especially in December. The investment has the first negative growth since the data. In terms of land acquisition, the land purchased by the development companies in 2014 fell by 14.5% year-on-year, and the 300 key cities fell by 31%. As such, it is estimated that the property market situation in the first quarter of this year will not improve, and the “good start†of the management's hope is not optimistic.
To activate the property market, the most critical issue is to motivate the demand for home purchases to enter the market. The demand for the property market in January did not extend the “warm winter†market in 2014, and the influence of monetary policy cannot be ignored. In 2008 and 2012, the central bank successively lowered the bid five times and two times, which played a very important role in the “round-up†of the two rounds of the property market. In the fourth quarter of 2014, the “warm winter†market in the property market has been closely related to the expansion of “oriented easing†since the end of the third quarter, and even the abundant liquidity and the drop in interest rates caused by the signs of comprehensive easing. In 2014, the amount of bank loans reached 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 890 billion yuan year-on-year, the highest level in history. Personal mortgages were accelerated in the fourth quarter. After two and a half years, the central bank again on November 21 last year. Cut interest rates. Monetary policy in the fourth quarter is one of the driving forces behind the rebound in the property market.
Since 2013, due to the comprehensive substitution of wealth management products for deposits, the superposition of wealth management products and the capital market docking, whether the scope of monetary policy “oriented easing†is expanded, or comprehensive easing to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, the liquidity released, more The land has boosted the boom in the capital market, not the decline in the cost of financing the real economy. Therefore, in January 2015, the central bank's monetary policy abandoned the radical style since the fourth quarter of 2014 and chose “silenceâ€, which is the main reason for the renewed rise in capital prices since January. The first set of personal housing loan interest rates remained basically in the third quarter. At the end level, this is an important reason for restricting the continued release of rigid demand that is very sensitive to the cost of loans.
From the "9·30" mortgage new policy, the adjustment of the provident fund policy, and the State Council executive meeting proposed to promote the upgrading of housing in six major areas, the country hopes to maintain the stability of the property market through the demand for rigid demand for improved demand. Encourage developers to accelerate new start-ups and land acquisitions by digesting inventory. From the international experience, when the per capita GDP exceeds 5,000 US dollars, the people who solve the basic housing needs have the desire to improve their living needs. In China, due to the poor quality of urban residents, 30% of the stock housing was built in the 1980s and 1990s, even in the era of “short economyâ€. 20% of the houses lack basic living facilities, and the incentives for urban residents to improve their housing are even more adequate.
But improved demand has two important characteristics: the first is the support of higher income levels. In recent years, although the increase in disposable income of residents has exceeded the increase in GDP, the ability of income to support the demand for improved housing is insufficient. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Gini coefficient of China's resident income in 2014 was 0.469, and the income gap was larger in the international arena. What is more worthy of attention is that the Gini coefficient of household net property related to whether residents can improve their housing reached 0.73 in 2012, which greatly restricted the improvement demand of residents to “sell old and buy newâ€.
In addition, the need for low-cost mortgage support is another feature of improved housing demand. Although the “9·30†mortgage new deal proposes that the second-home loan interest rate can be at least 30% of the benchmark interest rate, from the current implementation, most banks are still implementing the interest rate policy of more than 10% on the basic interest rate, which becomes a constraint. An important factor in improving demand entering the market. According to the monitoring of transaction data by World Bank, the proportion of residential sales over 114 square meters in the fourth quarter of 2014 did not increase significantly. Therefore, the effect of increasing the loan placement and lowering the loan interest rate brought by this RRR cut will also help the demand for improved housing to enter the market.
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