"It is estimated that this year is a process of shuffling. You can live in the past and you will die if you don't. As far as I know, a large number of smaller wind power equipment companies have been drained." Xinjiang Xinfeng Installation Engineering Limited The company's general manager Niu Guoliang told this reporter.
Since this year, great changes have taken place in both internal and external environments.
Related company stocks trend Goldwind Technology 14.19+0.110.78% Poly Real Estate 10.28+0.050.49%, especially **Restricted, high cost, policy shifts to these unfavorable factors, photovoltaic, wind power, these two original vibrant new energy The industry was thrown into an unprecedented difficult situation for a moment, and a big reshuffle was inevitable.
Relevant experts pointed out that after experiencing a period of “as long as production can be sold†in previous years, photovoltaic and wind power industries have finally embarked on a similar path to traditional industries—overcapacity, low-price competition, and declining profits. . In the end, under the influence of the Matthew effect, large companies may become the final winners, and many small enterprises may go out.
The price war forced the outflow of small enterprises. "Since the end of the first quarter, the price of photovoltaic modules began to dive. Now the price range of the entire industry chain has shifted downwards. The result of the price decline is that no one of the products of small enterprises is required." The insider of a large-scale photovoltaic company said to this reporter yesterday.
According to him, many small and medium-sized PV module companies in China are currently suspending production or cutting production in large areas. “In the past, they could still get orders based on price advantage, but now the prices of big companies’ products are down, and small companies are even less. Competitive."
According to IMS Research's global photovoltaic industry analysis report, global PV module shipments fell by nearly 10% in the first quarter of this year. Subsequently, the average price of components that remained strong last year fell sharply.
Data show that starting April 1, polysilicon prices in the spot market once fell 40% to 53.7 US dollars / kg, wafer prices fell 40% to 0.54 US dollars / watt, component prices fell 27% to 1.13 US dollars / watt.
The rapid decline in the price of the entire industry chain has led to sharp declines in the gross profit margin of all photovoltaic companies, and the profit margin has narrowed rapidly. Some SMEs with no cost advantage have suffered losses, and the operating rate has even dropped below 50%.
Similar to photovoltaics, the wind power industry is currently experiencing the same pain. Data show that between 2007 and 2008, wind turbine prices fell by 13.3% to about 6,500 yuan per kilowatt. The downward trend increased from 18.08 to 18.5% in 2008 and to 18.9% after 2010. Since this year, the price of wind turbines has even fallen below 3,500 yuan/kW, which has fallen by almost half compared with three years ago.
“It was originally estimated that after 10 months, the price per kilowatt would fall by 500 yuan, and now it has been shortened to 6 months, 4 months or even shorter.†Yao Yu, director of public affairs department of Goldwind Technology commented.
What's more serious is that while prices are falling, costs are rising. This has become a headache for wind turbine companies.
The reporter learned that due to the skyrocketing prices of rare earth metals, the price of neodymium iron boron, the core raw material of wind turbine generators, has risen more than 10 times over the same period of last year. Affected by this, many wind turbine manufacturers across the country have discontinued production to varying degrees.
Previously, a research report of CICC put forward that, as a raw material for wind turbines, the spot price of permanent magnet materials has soared from 100 yuan to 700 yuan per kilogram. If all of them are purchased in the spot market, the gross profit margin of the compressed turbine enterprises will exceed 10 percentage point.
However, in the eyes of some brand companies, the current market environment makes the brand advantage that may not have been valued more clearly reflected.
The chairman of Artes Solar Power Co., Ltd. told reporters that in a market that was in short supply, everything was sold off. Brand enterprises could not reflect the advantages of brand and quality. Once the balance of supply and demand, the advantages of large-scale enterprises will be To be highlighted.
"Now the brand value of photovoltaic products is higher than before, and foreign companies also value the brand more, because the price has fallen under the constraint of cost," said an insider of the large photovoltaic company.
The difficulty of financing has increased polarization. “The current situation is very serious, but it is better than the financial crisis. Now the most important issue is that it is more difficult for enterprises.†A single crystal furnace equipment manufacturer in Jiangsu – Changzhou Jiangnan Power PV Du Jun, general manager of Science & Technology Co., Ltd. said in an interview with this reporter yesterday.
He revealed that although some large companies can still get bank acceptance, small businesses can't get it. As the country’s monetary policy tightens, the days of small businesses are very sad.
"For SMEs, at the moment, they can only look at it in order to tide over the difficulties." Du Jun believes that the reshuffling of the photovoltaic industry is bound to occur, but it may only affect downstream component manufacturers at the beginning, and it is not yet up to the upstream equipment manufacturers. It will bring too much impact. "Of course, if the downstream funds are not in place, it will still have an impact."
The problem of financing difficulties is even more pronounced in the wind power industry, which generally relies on the domestic market.
According to Niu Guoliang, a wind farm requires a lot of investment during the construction process, and the demand for equipment capital is the largest. However, due to the tightening of banks, many wind power equipment companies have experienced production cuts or even production cuts. “A large-scale wind power main engine plant should have already given us money, but it has not yet been paid.â€
He said that the current capital chain of wind power companies is already very tight, and the days of big companies with other industrial layouts such as Huarui and Dongqi are better than others, while other single wind turbine manufacturers are more difficult.
“In the past when the market was burning, many small businesses could hire temporary workers to do it, and the equipment could be sold off. However, now it is necessary to fight strength and quality, and some companies immediately lose their cash flow.†Niu Guoliang said.
However, while small-scale wind power and photovoltaic companies are almost in desperation, leading manufacturers can use state-level financial institutions to continue expansion.
Previously, GCL Group, the parent company of GCL-Poly, China's largest polysilicon producer, had signed a development financial cooperation agreement with the China Development Bank (hereinafter referred to as “the CDBâ€). According to the contents of the agreement, in the next five years, CDB will provide foreign currency and *** support to the GCL Group’s domestic and foreign investment projects to meet the funding needs of GCL Group's future development. Among them, GCL-Poly is the main support target, including its photovoltaic materials business, environmental protection power, photovoltaic power station system integration and overseas photovoltaic power station business.
The largest polysilicon chip maker in the world, LDK Solar Co., Ltd., also signed investment with China National Development Bank Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Development Bank, an investment subsidiary of CCB International and an investment subsidiary of another bank. The agreement, which became the first new energy company that simultaneously obtained the above-mentioned investment from the three state-owned financial institutions.
In fact, this special treatment has enabled large companies to enjoy excess profits even when the market environment is not good, thereby further widening the distance with small businesses. For example, the profit forecast issued by GCL-Poly recently stated that the profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year will increase by approximately 300% year-on-year. The reason for the increase in profits is the significant increase in polysilicon production and wafer production and sales. Revenue has grown substantially.
Policy Winds Blow Through Industrial Bubbles The rapid development of photovoltaics and wind power in recent years has been driven mainly by the support policies of various governments. The "growing pains" encountered by the two major industries this year have been largely due to policy changes.
Taking wind power as an example, the nation’s rectification policy for rare earth resources has pushed up the price of rare earths. As a result, it has indirectly boosted the manufacturing costs of wind turbines. According to another source, the National Energy Administration will withdraw the approval authority from the provincial development and reform commission for onshore wind farm projects below 50,000 kilowatts. The approval of onshore wind farm projects has become more stringent, benefiting the same large wind power companies.
An analyst at Yuanfu Securities pointed out that due to limited wind power resources and the government's plan to reduce the impact, the declining demand for domestic wind power market has been determined.
“First of all, the domestic wind power growth rate in the 12th Five-Year Plan is expected to slow down significantly. At the same time, domestic wind power resources have been vigorously developed by the five major power generation group-led wind farms. In the future, the remaining high-speed wind farms are limited, and the remaining wind power resource areas are numerous. For low-speed wind farms," ​​the analyst said.
He predicted that the demand for wind turbines will show a negative growth in 2011, and the installed capacity of wind power for the whole year will be only 16 GW. Previously, the industry predicted that China's installed capacity this year will reach 18GW.
KGI analysts pointed out that since May, the State Grid shut down all wind power operator approval procedures, and there is no timetable for when to restart now, which will affect the annual installed capacity. As the country continues to raise the deposit reserve ratio, operators are facing financial pressure and their installed capacity is not high, which may also cause orders to be delayed in the industry.
The same is true for the photovoltaic industry. LDK related sources pointed out that due to a large number of new production capacity put into production in the second half of last year to the first half of this year, the current global total photovoltaic capacity is still greater than demand. In this context, the sales of large-scale and small-scale plants in the first-line market have clearly differentiated.
According to him, this is even more evident in the domestic market. Because many project investors are afraid of problems, they will deliberately choose some of the major manufacturers' products. On the other hand, large enterprises have relatively stronger public relations capabilities in the country.
Solarbuzz senior analyst Finlay Colville has publicly stated that the double-digit growth of orders and revenues for photovoltaic equipment manufacturers in 2010 was the result of radical production expansion by the second-tier crystalline silicon manufacturers and a new round of thin film investment construction. However, in the short-term, the peak of equipment capital expenditure caused by human activities between 2010 and 2011 was put into production, but it was contrary to the long-term demand trend of the industry.
“In the past few years, the PV market has not had strict rules for entry, resulting in a large number of photovoltaic products with poor quality and lack of scientific and technological content that have disrupted the market with low-cost advantages. These changes will lead to a new pattern in the photovoltaic market, and some will not follow the “routine†approach. The companies that are licensed will be eliminated and will help the industry to compete in an orderly manner, said the chairman of a photovoltaic company in Zhejiang.
"The shuffle is the process that the industry must go through." Niu Guoliang also pointed out to this reporter that only with high profits and good prospects will the industry attract a large number of enterprises and capitals, which will enlarge the entire industry; In order to promote the long-term healthy development of the new energy industry, the survival of the fittest and the “washing out†of some backward and less competitive enterprises can be promoted.
The reporter learned that although the total number of domestic wind turbine companies is close to 100, only about 30 companies have actually operated and formed a certain scale, and these 30 companies have begun to withdraw from the market slowly.
Since this year, great changes have taken place in both internal and external environments.
Related company stocks trend Goldwind Technology 14.19+0.110.78% Poly Real Estate 10.28+0.050.49%, especially **Restricted, high cost, policy shifts to these unfavorable factors, photovoltaic, wind power, these two original vibrant new energy The industry was thrown into an unprecedented difficult situation for a moment, and a big reshuffle was inevitable.
Relevant experts pointed out that after experiencing a period of “as long as production can be sold†in previous years, photovoltaic and wind power industries have finally embarked on a similar path to traditional industries—overcapacity, low-price competition, and declining profits. . In the end, under the influence of the Matthew effect, large companies may become the final winners, and many small enterprises may go out.
The price war forced the outflow of small enterprises. "Since the end of the first quarter, the price of photovoltaic modules began to dive. Now the price range of the entire industry chain has shifted downwards. The result of the price decline is that no one of the products of small enterprises is required." The insider of a large-scale photovoltaic company said to this reporter yesterday.
According to him, many small and medium-sized PV module companies in China are currently suspending production or cutting production in large areas. “In the past, they could still get orders based on price advantage, but now the prices of big companies’ products are down, and small companies are even less. Competitive."
According to IMS Research's global photovoltaic industry analysis report, global PV module shipments fell by nearly 10% in the first quarter of this year. Subsequently, the average price of components that remained strong last year fell sharply.
Data show that starting April 1, polysilicon prices in the spot market once fell 40% to 53.7 US dollars / kg, wafer prices fell 40% to 0.54 US dollars / watt, component prices fell 27% to 1.13 US dollars / watt.
The rapid decline in the price of the entire industry chain has led to sharp declines in the gross profit margin of all photovoltaic companies, and the profit margin has narrowed rapidly. Some SMEs with no cost advantage have suffered losses, and the operating rate has even dropped below 50%.
Similar to photovoltaics, the wind power industry is currently experiencing the same pain. Data show that between 2007 and 2008, wind turbine prices fell by 13.3% to about 6,500 yuan per kilowatt. The downward trend increased from 18.08 to 18.5% in 2008 and to 18.9% after 2010. Since this year, the price of wind turbines has even fallen below 3,500 yuan/kW, which has fallen by almost half compared with three years ago.
“It was originally estimated that after 10 months, the price per kilowatt would fall by 500 yuan, and now it has been shortened to 6 months, 4 months or even shorter.†Yao Yu, director of public affairs department of Goldwind Technology commented.
What's more serious is that while prices are falling, costs are rising. This has become a headache for wind turbine companies.
The reporter learned that due to the skyrocketing prices of rare earth metals, the price of neodymium iron boron, the core raw material of wind turbine generators, has risen more than 10 times over the same period of last year. Affected by this, many wind turbine manufacturers across the country have discontinued production to varying degrees.
Previously, a research report of CICC put forward that, as a raw material for wind turbines, the spot price of permanent magnet materials has soared from 100 yuan to 700 yuan per kilogram. If all of them are purchased in the spot market, the gross profit margin of the compressed turbine enterprises will exceed 10 percentage point.
However, in the eyes of some brand companies, the current market environment makes the brand advantage that may not have been valued more clearly reflected.
The chairman of Artes Solar Power Co., Ltd. told reporters that in a market that was in short supply, everything was sold off. Brand enterprises could not reflect the advantages of brand and quality. Once the balance of supply and demand, the advantages of large-scale enterprises will be To be highlighted.
"Now the brand value of photovoltaic products is higher than before, and foreign companies also value the brand more, because the price has fallen under the constraint of cost," said an insider of the large photovoltaic company.
The difficulty of financing has increased polarization. “The current situation is very serious, but it is better than the financial crisis. Now the most important issue is that it is more difficult for enterprises.†A single crystal furnace equipment manufacturer in Jiangsu – Changzhou Jiangnan Power PV Du Jun, general manager of Science & Technology Co., Ltd. said in an interview with this reporter yesterday.
He revealed that although some large companies can still get bank acceptance, small businesses can't get it. As the country’s monetary policy tightens, the days of small businesses are very sad.
"For SMEs, at the moment, they can only look at it in order to tide over the difficulties." Du Jun believes that the reshuffling of the photovoltaic industry is bound to occur, but it may only affect downstream component manufacturers at the beginning, and it is not yet up to the upstream equipment manufacturers. It will bring too much impact. "Of course, if the downstream funds are not in place, it will still have an impact."
The problem of financing difficulties is even more pronounced in the wind power industry, which generally relies on the domestic market.
According to Niu Guoliang, a wind farm requires a lot of investment during the construction process, and the demand for equipment capital is the largest. However, due to the tightening of banks, many wind power equipment companies have experienced production cuts or even production cuts. “A large-scale wind power main engine plant should have already given us money, but it has not yet been paid.â€
He said that the current capital chain of wind power companies is already very tight, and the days of big companies with other industrial layouts such as Huarui and Dongqi are better than others, while other single wind turbine manufacturers are more difficult.
“In the past when the market was burning, many small businesses could hire temporary workers to do it, and the equipment could be sold off. However, now it is necessary to fight strength and quality, and some companies immediately lose their cash flow.†Niu Guoliang said.
However, while small-scale wind power and photovoltaic companies are almost in desperation, leading manufacturers can use state-level financial institutions to continue expansion.
Previously, GCL Group, the parent company of GCL-Poly, China's largest polysilicon producer, had signed a development financial cooperation agreement with the China Development Bank (hereinafter referred to as “the CDBâ€). According to the contents of the agreement, in the next five years, CDB will provide foreign currency and *** support to the GCL Group’s domestic and foreign investment projects to meet the funding needs of GCL Group's future development. Among them, GCL-Poly is the main support target, including its photovoltaic materials business, environmental protection power, photovoltaic power station system integration and overseas photovoltaic power station business.
The largest polysilicon chip maker in the world, LDK Solar Co., Ltd., also signed investment with China National Development Bank Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Development Bank, an investment subsidiary of CCB International and an investment subsidiary of another bank. The agreement, which became the first new energy company that simultaneously obtained the above-mentioned investment from the three state-owned financial institutions.
In fact, this special treatment has enabled large companies to enjoy excess profits even when the market environment is not good, thereby further widening the distance with small businesses. For example, the profit forecast issued by GCL-Poly recently stated that the profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year will increase by approximately 300% year-on-year. The reason for the increase in profits is the significant increase in polysilicon production and wafer production and sales. Revenue has grown substantially.
Policy Winds Blow Through Industrial Bubbles The rapid development of photovoltaics and wind power in recent years has been driven mainly by the support policies of various governments. The "growing pains" encountered by the two major industries this year have been largely due to policy changes.
Taking wind power as an example, the nation’s rectification policy for rare earth resources has pushed up the price of rare earths. As a result, it has indirectly boosted the manufacturing costs of wind turbines. According to another source, the National Energy Administration will withdraw the approval authority from the provincial development and reform commission for onshore wind farm projects below 50,000 kilowatts. The approval of onshore wind farm projects has become more stringent, benefiting the same large wind power companies.
An analyst at Yuanfu Securities pointed out that due to limited wind power resources and the government's plan to reduce the impact, the declining demand for domestic wind power market has been determined.
“First of all, the domestic wind power growth rate in the 12th Five-Year Plan is expected to slow down significantly. At the same time, domestic wind power resources have been vigorously developed by the five major power generation group-led wind farms. In the future, the remaining high-speed wind farms are limited, and the remaining wind power resource areas are numerous. For low-speed wind farms," ​​the analyst said.
He predicted that the demand for wind turbines will show a negative growth in 2011, and the installed capacity of wind power for the whole year will be only 16 GW. Previously, the industry predicted that China's installed capacity this year will reach 18GW.
KGI analysts pointed out that since May, the State Grid shut down all wind power operator approval procedures, and there is no timetable for when to restart now, which will affect the annual installed capacity. As the country continues to raise the deposit reserve ratio, operators are facing financial pressure and their installed capacity is not high, which may also cause orders to be delayed in the industry.
The same is true for the photovoltaic industry. LDK related sources pointed out that due to a large number of new production capacity put into production in the second half of last year to the first half of this year, the current global total photovoltaic capacity is still greater than demand. In this context, the sales of large-scale and small-scale plants in the first-line market have clearly differentiated.
According to him, this is even more evident in the domestic market. Because many project investors are afraid of problems, they will deliberately choose some of the major manufacturers' products. On the other hand, large enterprises have relatively stronger public relations capabilities in the country.
Solarbuzz senior analyst Finlay Colville has publicly stated that the double-digit growth of orders and revenues for photovoltaic equipment manufacturers in 2010 was the result of radical production expansion by the second-tier crystalline silicon manufacturers and a new round of thin film investment construction. However, in the short-term, the peak of equipment capital expenditure caused by human activities between 2010 and 2011 was put into production, but it was contrary to the long-term demand trend of the industry.
“In the past few years, the PV market has not had strict rules for entry, resulting in a large number of photovoltaic products with poor quality and lack of scientific and technological content that have disrupted the market with low-cost advantages. These changes will lead to a new pattern in the photovoltaic market, and some will not follow the “routine†approach. The companies that are licensed will be eliminated and will help the industry to compete in an orderly manner, said the chairman of a photovoltaic company in Zhejiang.
"The shuffle is the process that the industry must go through." Niu Guoliang also pointed out to this reporter that only with high profits and good prospects will the industry attract a large number of enterprises and capitals, which will enlarge the entire industry; In order to promote the long-term healthy development of the new energy industry, the survival of the fittest and the “washing out†of some backward and less competitive enterprises can be promoted.
The reporter learned that although the total number of domestic wind turbine companies is close to 100, only about 30 companies have actually operated and formed a certain scale, and these 30 companies have begun to withdraw from the market slowly.
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