The influence of mixed operation in security industry on survey statistics and corresponding measures

The phenomenon of mixed operation in the security industry has brought a great impact on the investigation and statistics work. First of all, the statistical work of the number of enterprises and the number of employees in the industry has largely lost significance. Since the absolute value of the sales of a company's security products and the proportion of its total sales have an impact on its importance in the field of security, how much is the sales volume of the enterprise's security industry in the mixed operation more than the minimum or the minimum amount of sales? Can it be considered a security company? Since a large number of people only work part-time or work in the security industry on a part-time basis, the number of people who come out of security-related companies will be much higher than the number of people who should be engaged in security industry personnel.

Second, the mixed operation has greatly increased the difficulty and workload of investigation and statistics work. The situation of mixed operation in the security field is very complicated. Due to the knowledge structure of the employees, the level of the responsible business, and the depth of understanding of the internal conditions of the industry, it is difficult for even the internal personnel of the company to find out the specific conditions of each part of the business. . Mixed business operation not only greatly increases the difficulty of data aggregation of the surveyed companies, but also the accuracy of the obtained data. It is difficult to guarantee the accuracy of the data obtained. The survey summary staff must carry out a large number of review and correction work. General sample surveys require at least one-thousandth of the sampling rate. The sample rate for projects with a smaller total sample size should be larger, and the samples should be evenly distributed. Due to the mixed operation, the difficulty of sampling is also increased.

Third, mixed operations have brought convenience to companies exaggerating statistical data. Reality is the cornerstone of statistical data, but the unclear and untrue figures have become obstacles to current business decisions.

For the macro-economy, behind the false figures is the “impact of leadership power on numbers.” In front of achievements, the grass-roots government has a strong impulse to control figures. The phenomenon that the sum of local GDP is higher than that of the whole country is not uncommon. As of July 2004, the National Bureau of Statistics calculated that the GDP growth data for the first half of the year was 9.3%, and weighted by the data reported by the provincial statistics bureaus, China’s GDP growth has already been It reached 13.5%, a difference of 4.2%, and the difference between the central and local data of the total economic output (total GDP) was 19.8%. On June 27, 2009, the Ninth Session of the 11th NPC Standing Committee reviewed and adopted the revised "Statistics Law." The new "Statistics Law" has further improved the statistical legal system, provided an effective legal basis for statistical agencies and statisticians to better perform their duties, and provided a strong legal guarantee for the promotion of statistical reform and development. However, there are still many statistical work in China. Violation of laws and regulations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics released the "2009 National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin," the country's GDP in 2009 increased by 8.7% (after verification, the GDP at current prices in 2009 a total of 34.0507 trillion yuan, an increase over the initial accounting of the number The growth rate at constant prices of 515.4 billion yuan was 9.1%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than the preliminary figure. However, the total GDP of all provinces, districts and cities added up, and the growth rate was much higher than 8.7%. According to the data released by various regions, there are only three provinces and cities with an economic growth rate of less than 8.7%. The growth rate of the remaining 28 provinces and cities was higher than 8.7%, of which 2 provinces exceeded 16%.

In view of the problems arising from the statistical work, in June 2010, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Supervision, and the Ministry of Justice issued Circular No. 38 on the issue of "Guo Tongzi No. [2010]" on the implementation of the regulations on the joint execution of statistical methods and statistical violations of laws and regulations. "Notice of the Great Inspection", deployed a nationwide statistical law enforcement inspection, and resolutely investigated and investigated cases of statistical violations.

Not only local governments, companies also have the potential to falsely report data. Take the survey of real estate prices as an example. At present, there are more than 9,000 real estate companies in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Data are mainly reported by statisticians of real estate companies. Can not rule out the real estate business for the benefit of the low report data, especially in the period of rising house prices. The statistical work of government agencies is protected by law. The survey and statistics work of private citizens is much less protected by law and the difficulty is much greater. In order to expand the influence of enterprises, exaggerate the strength of enterprises, and falsely report the company's turnover is more and more common. The statistical work in the automotive industry is relatively good, but two of the three authoritative organizations in the automotive industry - the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (the other is the National Information Association for Passenger Cars) have been working on the first half of this year. The automobile production and sales data respectively released a total of 9,106,100 and 7,185,300, with a difference of 1.83 million vehicles.

Due to work requirements, I paid great attention to collecting various data from security companies. The data obtained from different channels is very large. Even the data that I am very familiar with by business leaders told me that there are many exaggerated components. The most common one is mixed. Companies operating in the business count all their turnover as security turnover. When we do brand selection work and industry survey work, the data such as turnover, employees, R&D personnel, and R&D input obtained from enterprises is basically the overall data of the company. Even a single company that conducts security operations often has even Exaggerate data more than doubled, not to mention data reported by security companies operating in mixed operations.

A veteran of the statistics system proposed that in order to solve the problem of China's statistics, in addition to the statistical method itself, we must also solve the problem of social integrity. "The four accounts of enterprises are reported to the banks, taxation departments, statistical departments and business owners themselves." Such a social integrity environment will certainly affect the authenticity of the data.

Fourth, the mixed data makes the original data from the survey more often than the actual number.

In the case of mixed operation, the original data from the survey and statistics are often larger than the actual figures. The analysis can be based on the two types of mixed operation in the past.

The first category is that one company's products (including engineering projects) span multiple industries. Security is just one of them. Listed companies have higher transparency, are subject to relevant laws and require financial audits, and their published data are more truthful. Taking listed companies as an example, even the most statistically-reported enterprises have statistical security product data. Also larger than the actual data, the only exception seen is the same-party stock. Annual Report shares the same side of the security system mainly refers to the value of security equipment, digital city and information systems industry output value of the annual report is also also part belongs to the field of security, but no statistics in the security category.

The most common is the overall business income or main income are included in the field of security, although only part of security, especially in large-scale engineering and systems integration class of security companies in this situation is very common. Shenzhen Dashi Smart Co., Ltd. is a listed company with significant influence in the field of access control, but its IC card reading and writing equipment and other income accounted for only 4.07% of total revenue. The company’s building intelligence and building energy efficiency service revenue accounted for the company’s The proportion of operating income is more than 80%, but security is only one of the two components of the intelligent building. It is estimated that the intelligent security output value of Dashun is less than 50% of its total output value. Hanwang Technology has great influence in the fields of biometrics and intelligent monitoring. However, the total assets of Hanwang Machine Vision, a subsidiary of the company, are 1.6071 million yuan, net assets -1.3379 million yuan, and 2009 net profits - 69.38 million yuan. Its income is very small in the entire company and can be ignored.

There is also a problem with product standards. For example, some companies in the door industry have classified anti-theft doors that do not meet the standard as anti-theft security doors belonging to physical protection equipment.

The products of the second category are used in many industries and are only part of the security applications. The prevailing situation is that products that can be divided into several different industries all belong to the field of security, such as infrared thermal imagers, mosaic-type large screens, and so on. Almost all security personnel believe that Dali Technology is a typical security enterprise. According to the foregoing analysis, the use of infrared thermal imagers for video surveillance accounts for less than 20% of the total market. Therefore, the output value of Dali Science and Technology Security is less than one-third of the total sales. The situation of such enterprises is similar to that of Dali.

According to the 2008 survey conducted by the China Academy of Public Security, as of the end of 2007, the number of security companies in the country reached 18,300, of which 11,200 were mixed security companies, accounting for 61.2%. The so-called hybrid security company is also a security company that protects half of the annual output value of the mixed business. In 2008, the total number of security companies in the country was more than 21,000, of which the number of security companies operating in mixed industries was more than 60%. The data of the two companies are very similar. Because the security companies in mixed operations have a large proportion, if they do not conduct relevant data Corrected, the authenticity of the statistical results has become a big problem.

In order to reduce the impact of mixed business operations on survey statistics, I think that the following measures can be taken: First, market investigators must master high basic skills in survey statistics, have a deeper understanding of security product technology and market conditions, and must comprehensively understand each At the level, it is necessary to clarify the purpose and scope of the investigation, adopt a reasonable sampling plan, and collect as many representative samples as possible.

Secondly, collecting data from multiple angles to verify and correct each other is the main method to reduce survey statistical errors. When calculating the GDP data, the National Bureau of Statistics evaluates the main basic data from all angles, and in particular, comprehensively assesses regional GDP data using related indicators such as taxation, electricity consumption, freight turnover, etc., which are not in line with the actual situation or are obviously anomalous. Basic data, most of which have been downgraded, are more accurate. Security surveillance market statistics can also be modeled on this approach.

In general, public reports of listed companies, surveys written by regional authorities, and schedule data collected by companies such as Forbes, Ms. Wang, the chief editor of this site, personally feel that these data are more authentic. Care should be taken to ensure that the data is close to the actual situation through multi-angle reviews. For example, the rationality of the four components of the production marketing, distribution agency (including exports), project construction, and security services of the security industry's vertical management depth; the correlation between the board data and DVR, DVR and camera data; The situation on a larger scale is inferred from the survey conducted by some regional authorities. Such as Beijing's technical defense department in 2008 to do 13,000 units of security investment and various types of security equipment, the statistical investigation is very representative.

Third, using the combination of sampling surveys and typical surveys, we can look at the authenticity of the survey results by focusing on the survey data of influential companies in the industry. Accurately grasping their relevant data is critical for improving the accuracy of survey statistics. For example, sales of Sony China in the field of cameras, sales of Hikvision in hard compression boards, sales of Honeywell in the field of burglar alarms, and sales of Tongfang’s shares in security equipment are very representative.

Fourth, we must carefully check and remove water from the most influential corporate data in the industry and correct the data of similar companies. This article has done more in-depth analysis of more than a dozen representative listed companies, and the data obtained should be closer to reality.

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